Oil Slumps on Peace Hopes, but Gas Stays Tight
- Brent spot fell from $120 to $107 a barrel in two trading days
- IEA – Europe enters winter with its lowest gas storage since 2013
- ACER – grid congestion cost European consumers €5.4 billion in 2025
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The week in brief · Week 44 · 26 October – 1 November
The wind that had split Europe's electricity market in two dropped away this week, and with it the price gap between Germany and its eastern neighbours: by Thursday every market from Poland to Romania was paying more than €300/MWh. Europe's energy regulators set out how thin and how American the continent's gas buffer has become, Brussels opened talks with refiners about diesel, and energy ministers began arguing over how electricity bills should be built.
On Monday Germany was still exporting. Onshore wind averaged 28.7 GW for the day, the country sent a net 5.4 GW abroad, and the German–Luxembourg day-ahead price averaged €116.57/MWh (Fraunhofer ISE, 2026a; 2026b). From Wednesday the wind all but disappeared. On Thursday onshore output averaged 4.1 GW and offshore 0.5 GW, gas plants ran at 11.8 GW and lignite at 12.3 GW, and Germany became a net importer of 5.8 GW (Fraunhofer ISE, 2026b).
Prices followed. Thursday's daily averages sat in a narrow band: €323.76/MWh in Romania, €314.85/MWh in Germany, €310.71/MWh in Czechia, €310.42/MWh in Austria, €308.51/MWh in Slovakia and €305.59/MWh in Poland. Germany's most expensive quarter-hour that day cost €574.28/MWh (Fraunhofer ISE, 2026a).
